Clinton Coopts India On Energy, Environment

THE media and most MPs from all parties barring the Left and its ally, the RJD, were agog with US President Clinton’s visit to India. The visit seems to have inspired such a gleam in the eyes of these sections that it blinded them and unfortunately much of the country as well, to what should have been a clear and transparent fact. The US president visits another country and engages it in discussions not to pursue some altruistic or idealistic goal but in order to further US national interests and those of the classes it represents. One need not even belong to the Left, and share its view of global capitalism and US imperialism, to grasp the reality that the US has a strategic vision into which they want to incorporate one of the world’s largest countries which, for a variety of reasons, has been outside it hitherto.

And surely, the BJP-led Indian government too must have sought to further its interest, if not what they perceived as the nation’s interests, during the visit and the official discussions during it. But so eager were they to enter the embrace proffered by Clinton, and so Pakistan-centered and nuclear-weapons-obsessed a vision did they have of the Indo-US relationship, that the BJP-led government willingly or blindly endorsed the US viewpoint on a range of developmental issues. This convergence of views between the Indian and US governments is likely to have serious negative consequences for India in the coming years and will also actively assist the US in furthering its strategic goals, and those of global capitalism, by subverting or weakening third world resistance to them in various international fora.

US ADVANCES ITS DEVELOPMENT AGENDA

To the Vajpayee government, however, all this was of no import compared to the favourable noises made by Clinton praising India, always music to the ears of the Indian ruling classes and the great Indian middle class when it comes from its former colonial masters and now from the global superpower, and ostensibly signalling a shift away from its earlier pro-Pakistan tilt.

Clinton knew well what strings he should play to win over his already disarmed audience and, judging by the adulatory welcome he received from the MPs in parliament after his address and from the media in general, he played them like a maestro! He even told Indians what they should have been hearing from their own leaders, that drinking water connections were as important as internet connections, and that while 30 per cent of the world’s software engineers were Indians, so too were 25 per cent of the world’s poor, and they loved him for it! A member of the US delegation told a US magazine that, after decades of mutual distrust, so charmed were the Indian leaders by Clinton that one could “almost hear the ice melting.” No wonder, since the BJP-led government had already started the thawing process, even calling the US its “natural ally,” a term once used by India for the USSR and the socialist camp. What a good duet this between Clinton and Vajpayee!

However, in the middle of all this, what has not received the attention it deserved is the quiet way in which Indian interests have been almost bartered away, and along with them those of the world’s other developing countries, via some apparently innocuous agreement on energy and environment. The agreement was signed, surely surprisingly, by the foreign ministers of the two countries and announced by Clinton from a podium just a short distance away from the Taj Mahal at which he kept glancing wistfully. A pity indeed that this week’s Oscar Awards could find no place for this great actor! The US used a simple carrot to entice India along this path. The US knows that India is short of energy and also knows that the BJP-led government is eager to attract foreign, especially US, investment in energy projects, witness the BJP-Sena’s abrupt reversal of stand vis-a-vis Enron’s Dabhol Power Project in Maharashtra and the drama enacted in collusion with the then Karnataka government to ensure approval for the Cogentrix project in that state. The present BJP power minister is also known for his preparedness to bend over backwards to attract foreign investment in this sector. Thus, during the Clinton visit, the US used this bait effectively to push its agenda in the field of environment, the same agenda which had hitherto been resisted at least somewhat by India in multilateral fora.

KYOTO PROTOCOL AND CDM

The US also pushed for a so-called Clean Development Mechanism or CDM, loaded in its favour, with which such controls over emissions were to be gradually brought about. The US position regarding the CDM, which was to be a project-based mechanism rather than an over-arching one, was that developed countries such as the US with high GHG emissions could “trade” emission levels with developing countries with lower GHG emissions through market mechanisms. In other words, if the US could provide technologies or otherwise assist developing countries to reduce emissions, the reduction could be “credited” to the US emission account without the US having to itself actually effect any reductions in GHG emissions.

The US government, and the US energy industry which is a powerful lobby in that country and whose representatives were actively canvassing support for its position among developing countries at the various environmental summits, realised that it would be cheaper to do this than to reduce GHG emissions in the US or take the unpopular step of trying to reduce energy consumption and life-style levels in the US. In this process, pressure would also be brought on developing countries to give up their current energy technologies on environmental grounds, leaving them with no option but to turn to the US and other western countries for cleaner technologies.

This would therefore be a win-win situation for the US which, while providing the incremental cost of cleaner technologies amounting to about 5-10 per cent of project costs, would provide credit to the developing countries to buy US technologies and equipment amounting to 70-80 per cent of project costs, and simultaneously earn “emission credits” for the US under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol! In the past, the group of developing countries of G-77 had opposed this US-biased CDM and described it as unfair and iniquitous. However, even this watered-down treaty with a CDM biased in favour of the US and other developed countries has not been ratified by the US senate, isolating the US in the international community. But so strong are the vested interests there that even such international isolation and opprobrium did not move the US to reconsider its position. Specifically, the US Senate has adopted a resolution demanding as a precondition for US ratification, that key developing countries such as India, China and Brazil should “meaningfully participate” in the global reduction of GHG and adopt the CDM on American terms while giving up claims to equity or to emission-reduction responses weighted accoreding to prevailing energy consumption and emission patterns.

And it is this agenda that the US pursued, apparently successfully, during the Clinton visit. The current status of the global negotiations and treaty regime is that rules and modalities for the CDM are to be drawn up by November 2000 when the next (Sixth) Conference of Parties is to take place at the Hague. If the US could ensure beforehand that India supports its position, it would take it much closer to obtaining global acceptance and make it easier to wear down the remaining opposition from developing countries. The US has therefore been making strenuous efforts to enter into bilateral deals with India to accept or otherwise succumb to the US version of the CDM. Even prior to the Clinton tour, US officials visiting India, including the energy secretary Bill Richardson, had been pressing for such bilateral agreements. And the more energy projects India manages to “attract” from US firms accompanied by soft loans and other sops, the more vulnerable India becomes to US pressure on the CDM.

INDIAN COOPERATION ON ENVIRONMENT PROMISED

Commentators in India who otherwise remarked on President Clinton’s “lame-duck” status seem, however, to have forgotten that this also means that US presidential elections are around the corner. Clinton’s likely successor and Democratic presidential candidate, Vice-President, Al Gore requires all the support that he can get for the presidential race. In the traditional American style, corporate support for the Gore campaign will also demand, and get, quid pro quo. Al Gore is known in the US as somewhat of an environmentalist, but those who have followed the earlier global negotiations are not likely to forget the role played by Gore in nevertheless pushing for US interests at the Rio Conference, as pointed out at the time even in these columns. Business lobbies from the energy sector accompanying Clinton on his presidential yatra were clearly playing according to a pre-determined script written in the US.

And popular support in the US will not be too far behind, misled into believing that the US is only advancing “global” environmental standards and concerns. Just as anti-WTO protestors in Seattle were pushing for enforcement of “global” labour standards which would simultaneously work in favour of US industry and jobs in the US, so too it will not be difficult to convince voters in the US that Clinton and Gore are merely prodding a reluctant developing world to adopt global standards for controlling GHG and if there is a pay-off benefiting the US, well that is mere coincidence or even as it should be. Bill Clinton remarked during his visit to India that he had discovered a new term in India “crore” which a previously puzzled Clinton learned meant 10 million. Newspapers reported that Clinton, astute politician that he is, immediately coined a slogan for the US presidential race where the Democrats led by Clinton are seeking 40 million votes to put Gore in the White House — “Four crore for Al Gore” was what Clinton cleverly came up with. Going by what the US delegations seem to have achieved in coopting India into its energy-environment agenda, there will be much more than four crore pumped into the Gore coffers by the US energy and environmental equipment industry!

It is no wonder that the US-India joint statement on energy and environment was greeted with a high degree of scepticism by several experts and environmental groups in India and abroad, including some who otherwise favour increased Indo-US cooperation. The statement, in apparent innocence, says that India and the US “will work together and with other countries in multilateral fora toward early agreement on the elements of the Kyoto Protocol (KP), including Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).” In the light of past experience, it is clear who will agree with whom and thus who will benefit from such “working together” in multilateral fora. Commentators in India who otherwise remarked on President Clinton’s “lame-duck” status seem, however, to have forgotten that this also means that US presidential elections are around the corner. Clinton’s likely successor and Democratic presidential candidate, Vice-President, Al Gore requires all the support that he can get for the presidential race. In the traditional American style, corporate support for the Gore campaign will also demand, and get, quid pro quo. Al Gore is known in the US as somewhat of an environmentalist, but those who have followed the earlier global negotiations are not likely to forget the role played by Gore in nevertheless pushing for US interests at the Rio Conference, as pointed out at the time even in these columns. Business lobbies from the energy sector accompanying Clinton on his presidential yatra were clearly playing according to a pre-determined script written in the US. And popular support in the US will not be too far behind, misled into believing that the US is only advancing “global” environmental standards and concerns. Just as anti-WTO protestors in Seattle were pushing for enforcement of “global” labour standards which would simultaneously work in favour of US industry and jobs in the US, so too it will not be difficult to convince voters in the US that Clinton and Gore are merely prodding a reluctant developing world to adopt global standards for controlling GHG and if there is a pay-off benefiting the US, well that is mere coincidence or even as it should be. Bill Clinton remarked during his visit to India that he had discovered a new term in India “crore” which a previously puzzled Clinton learned meant 10 million. Newspapers reported that Clinton, astute politician that he is, immediately coined a slogan for the US presidential race where the Democrats led by Clinton are seeking 40 million votes to put Gore in the White House — “Four crore for Al Gore” was what Clinton cleverly came up with. Going by what the US delegations seem to have achieved in coopting India into its energy-environment agenda, there will be much more than four crore pumped into the Gore coffers by the US energy and environmental equipment industry!

The joint “Vision Statement” spoke, in apparent innocence, of the need on the part of the US and India to deal with wider issues beyond the sub-continent such as the environment, especially in the context of the US being the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) and India being among those with the msot rapid growth in such emissions, thus virtually putting both on roughly the same footing. Of course, this simply ignored the fact that the per capita GHG emissions in the US are about 20 times those of India, and many times those of other developing countries, such as 50 times those of Sri Lanka and over 250 times those of Nepal. It was in view of such differentials that the successive Global Environment Summits and the so-called Conference of Parties, in the face of stiff and persistent opposition, aggressive lobbying and open bullying by the US and a few of its closest allies, managed to draw up a Draft Treaty containing a differential time-frame for various countries to reduce their emission levels. Thus, under the Kyoto Protocol (KP), the US was given till 2008-2012 to reduce its GHG emissions by a mere 6 per cent while, much against US wishes, far more time was given to developing countries such as India, Brazil and China to begin reductions. The US also pushed for a so-called Clean Development Mechanism or CDM, loaded in its favour, with which such controls over emissions were to be gradually brought about. The US position regarding the CDM, which was to be a project-based mechanism rather than an over-arching one, was that developed countries such as the US with high GHG emissions could “trade” emission levels with developing countries with lower GHG emissions through market mechanisms. In other words, if the US could provide technologies or otherwise assist developing countries to reduce emissions, the reduction could be “credited” to the US emission account without the US having to itself actually effect any reductions in GHG emissions. The US government, and the US energy industry which is a powerful lobby in that country and whose representatives were actively canvassing support for its position among developing countries at the various environmental summits, realised that it would be cheaper to do this than to reduce GHG emissions in the US or take the unpopular step of trying to reduce energy consumption and life-style levels in the US. In this process, pressure would also be brought on developing countries to give up their current energy technologies on environmental grounds, leaving them with no option but to turn to the US and other western countries for cleaner technologies. This would therefore be a win-win situation for the US which, while providing the incremental cost of cleaner technologies amounting to about 5-10 per cent of project costs, would provide credit to the developing countries to buy US technologies and equipment amounting to 70-80 per cent of project costs, and simultaneously earn “emission credits” for the US under the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol! In the past, the group of developing countries of G-77 had opposed this US-biased CDM and described it as unfair and iniquitous. However, even this watered-down treaty with a CDM biased in favour of the US and other developed countries has not been ratified by the US senate, isolating the US in the international community. But so strong are the vested interests there that even such international isolation and opprobrium did not move the US to reconsider its position. Specifically, the US Senate has adopted a resolution demanding as a precondition for US ratification, that key developing countries such as India, China and Brazil should “meaningfully participate” in the global reduction of GHG and adopt the CDM on American terms while giving up claims to equity or to emission-reduction responses weighted accoreding to prevailing energy consumption and emission patterns. And it is this agenda that the US pursued, apparently successfully, during the Clinton visit. The current status of the global negotiations and treaty regime is that rules and modalities for the CDM are to be drawn up by November 2000 when the next (Sixth) Conference of Parties is to take place at the Hague. If the US could ensure beforehand that India supports its position, it would take it much closer to obtaining global acceptance and make it easier to wear down the remaining opposition from developing countries. The US has therefore been making strenuous efforts to enter into bilateral deals with India to accept or otherwise succumb to the US version of the CDM. Even prior to the Clinton tour, US officials visiting India, including the energy secretary Bill Richardson, had been pressing for such bilateral agreements. And the more energy projects India manages to “attract” from US firms accompanied by soft loans and other sops, the more vulnerable India becomes to US pressure on the CDM.

It had been widely noted and commented upon that India agreed to lowering tariff barriers on a wide variety of goods and services way ahead even of the deadline set by the WTO, while the US did not budge an inch regarding its protectionist measures against textile and garment imports from India and will ease its quota restrictions only towards the end of the 10-year period granted to it by the WTO. Similarly, the US did not announce any increase in visa quotas for Indian software engineers while it has succeeded in prising open the Indian market for foreign insurance companies. Many of the commercial agreements signed during the Clinton visit were actually merely ceremonial events putting a decorative seal on deals which had been struck several months ago. Even the stock market reacted negatively to the Clinton visit given this perception that little concrete had been achieved in favour of Indian interests, at least in terms of trade and commerce. To the Vajpayee government, however, all this was of no import compared to the favourable noises made by Clinton praising India, always music to the ears of the Indian ruling classes and the great Indian middle class when it comes from its former colonial masters and now from the global superpower, and ostensibly signalling a shift away from its earlier pro-Pakistan tilt. Clinton knew well what strings he should play to win over his already disarmed audience and, judging by the adulatory welcome he received from the MPs in parliament after his address and from the media in general, he played them like a maestro! He even told Indians what they should have been hearing from their own leaders, that drinking water connections were as important as internet connections, and that while 30 per cent of the world’s software engineers were Indians, so too were 25 per cent of the world’s poor, and they loved him for it! A member of the US delegation told a US magazine that, after decades of mutual distrust, so charmed were the Indian leaders by Clinton that one could “almost hear the ice melting.” No wonder, since the BJP-led government had already started the thawing process, even calling the US its “natural ally,” a term once used by India for the USSR and the socialist camp. What a good duet this between Clinton and Vajpayee!