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Vol.
XXV No. 49
December 09,2001 |
People’s Democracy
Picking Up The
Pieces At Dabhol As Enron Implodes
Prabir Purkayastha
ENRON
effectively imploded on Wednesday, November 28, with Dynegy refusing to go ahead with its
proposed merger deal. Enrons shares are now trading for only a few cents and Enron
is now heading towards an inevitable bankruptcy, if not liquidation. This has brought to
an ignominious end a high profile, new-economy company, which many believed had ushered in
a de-regulated energy gold rush. The impact of Enrons collapse is going to be felt
far and wide; India for instance, now has to pick up the pieces of its Dabhol project. The
Indian Financial Institutions (FIs) have an exposure of nearly 2 billion dollars in the
Dabhol project, including loans and guarantees to the foreign lenders.
MYSTERY OF
GROWTH
Enron had
transformed itself in a scant 15 years from a sleepy natural gas and pipeline company to a
powerful energy multi-national, with friends in very high places. Kenneth Lay was not only
one of the most influential backers of George Bush, the current president of the US, but
also a close personal friend. In the earlier Bush administration, Enron played an
important role, particularly in de-regulating the gas and electricity sectors. In
Californias summer meltdown last year, Enron was identified as one of the Texas
energy companies involved in price gouging. California also blamed Enron for influencing
the Federal Electricity Regulatory Commission with its free-market philosophy, and not
allowing price caps when the price of electricity in California had shot up to10 times
over its cost.
It is ironic
that Enron should now fall prey to the same “sacrosanct” market forces that it
espoused. In a scant six weeks, Enrons market capitalisation dissolved from 62
billion dollars to zip, making it one of the most spectacular bankruptcies in the US
history. How did Enron fall from the dizzying heights of a Fortune 10 company last
December to nothing in just one year? How did a nondescript Texas company, owning a few
pipelines, become an economic powerhouse, influencing the policies of the US, the
worlds most powerful democracy and India, the worlds most populous democracy?
AN ENERGY TRADER
To unravel this
mystery, we must look at the kind of business Enron built up. Enron, though in energy
business, was quite different from the usual energy companies that have large physical
assets. Under Kenneth Lay, it built itself up as an energy trader, with a world wide,
computerised energy trading system, EnronOnline. In this system, the bulk energy suppliers
sold energy, while bulk consumers bought electricity. These were effectively contracts
with Enron for the future delivery of energy. This could be either short term or long
term, “buys” or “sells”. In other words, Enron was buying energy at
certain prices for the future, while selling the same at higher prices, pocketing the
difference. In order to protect itself from adverse movement of prices, it had also
created certain derivatives and hedges; if the prices fell lower than what Enron had
anticipated, it had bought some insurance.
Playing the
future markets is a risky venture — as a number of mutual funds and banks have
discovered. The Barings Bank went belly up a few years back when its Singapore trader Nick
Leeson blew away a fortune betting the wrong way on the Nikkei. Enron seemed to have
mastered the energy future markets quite successfully, seemingly making hefty profits year
after year. Its share price climbed steadily, rising to a high of more than 90 dollars
last August. Jeff Skilling, who became Enrons CEO last December, and Kenneth Lay,
the earlier CEO, both made over 200 million dollars in stock options.
MANIPULATING
ACCOUNTS
The first hint
of trouble was when Skilling left abruptly after six months and Kenneth Lay took back the
reins of the company. Enrons stock price fell continuously, drifting down to about
37 dollars in October. Its share prices went into a tailspin in mid October, when Enron
announced equity write-off of 1.2 billion dollars due to undeclared, off the balance sheet
loans and losses.
Enrons
admission of unexplained losses caused an immediate uproar, with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) issuing show cause notices to Enron and Wall Street demanding an
explanation. The picture that emerged was clearly murky. Enron admitted to cooking its
financial statements for the last five years to show spurious profits. In order to cover
its losses, its officers set up shell companies that took loans guaranteed by Enron and
ploughed this money into Enron claiming cash profits. The loans did not appear on the
balance sheet, as Enron was, technically, only the guarantor of the loans. As Enrons
future trade ate up more and more money, Enron borrowed more and more while dressing up
its balance sheet for its investors.
Tragically,
while Lay and Skilling cashed in on Enrons stock price rise, Enrons employees
saw their pension funds evaporate by an estimated 1 billion dollars as it is held largely
in Enron stocks, now worthless. Currently, not only is SEC investigating Enron, but also
dozens of cases have been launched against its officers, including its employees. Its
auditors, Arthur Andersen are also being sued for certifying as correct such
“fancy” accounting practices. The auditors are also under investigations for
helping Enron set up for hefty fees some of the shell companies that Enron used to
manipulate their balance sheets.
INFLUENCE
PEDDLING
One of the
reasons for Enrons rise was its ability to influence policy. Its future energy trade
depended on knowing which way the market was going, and if not, to nudge it in the right
direction. Influence peddling was far more important to this new age company than the more
traditional energy companies. The influence peddling in the Dabhol project and the long
list Enrons friends in India are very much a part of Enrons business
“ethics”. The numerous policy-changes that India introduced, including the now
acknowledged disastrous fuel change to naphtha for power production, are some of the
Enrons interventions in India.
It has been
documented that Enron dictated each government notification that was issued on Independent
Power Producers. The shenanigans in high places are the common feature of Enrons
operations both in the US and in India. Readers may remember that one of Ambassador
Blackwills earliest statements on Indo-US relations was that there are five letters
that stand between India and the US ENRON. Subsequently, sources in the government
indicate that the Indian government had agreed to take over Enrons equity at the
price of more than a billion dollars, an agreement that was to be announced during
Vajpayees recent visit. Enrons collapse has saved the Indian people from this
disastrous deal.
At one stage, it
seemed that Enrons core business would survive. Dynegy, a much smaller rival, was
willing to take over Enron for about 9 billion dollars and even made a cash infusion in
Enron of 1.5 billion dollars. However, a closer look at its accounts and Enrons
future exposure caused Dynegy to back off from the deal. The financial rating agencies
downgraded its bonds to junk status, effectively pulling the plug on the company. They
will not lose their money, having received, Enron’s Northern Natural Gas valuable
16,500-mile pipeline, as a loan security. Enron is suing Dynegy for withdrawing from the
deal and contesting Dynegys claims on the pipeline, but more as a public relations
exercise than a serious legal claim.
INDIAN FIs FACE
BANKRUPTCY
While
Enrons fall will add to the fall of the new economy and the dot.com bust, Indian
financial institutions will now have to address their problem of lending Enron huge
amounts of money without evaluating the viability of the Dabhol project. Not only did
IDBI, IFCI and others lend Dabhol 1.2 billion dollars; they have also given guarantees to
US Exim and other lenders. Out of the 2.1 billion dollars of loans to Dabhol Power
Company, it appears that 1.9 billion dollars is the exposure of the Indian FIs. With Enron
headed towards bankruptcy, its shares cannot be acquired without going through the
tortuous process of US courts. The first phase of Dabhol plant is now shut down, and
its half-built second phase is in stasis. Both will soon turn to junk unless we take
immediate measures. Indian lenders will then face bankruptcy themselves.
But despite this
grim scenario, there is no indication that Indian government more specifically the
finance ministry — even understands the enormity of what is happening.
If it did, the
finance ministry would have realised by now that it must bite the bullet and take recourse
to the only option available: take over Enron by an act of parliament. Pay the existing
shareholders including Enron, GE, Bechtel and MSEB a fair compensation, a compensation to
be decided after examining the actual equity brought in by each of the parties. After
Enrons fancy bookkeeping has been exposed in the US, we need to check what Enron
really brought in — not what it claims. Only this step will save Maharashtra and the FIs.
To a government that believes the mantra of the market, such a step must be
particularly galling. Can the government go beyond its ideological straitjacket and try to
save the countrys 1.9 billion dollars? Or are we going to be treated to the familiar
spectacle of Yashwant Sinha fiddling while his financial institutions go up in flames once
again?
