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Vol.
XXVIII No. 24
June 13,
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Saras
Flies: But
Where To?
Raghu
THE
first Indian-made civilian passenger aircraft Saras, named after the Indian
crane, took to the air in its maiden flight last week. Media stories and various
commentators have promptly hailed this as a historic achievement, as is usually
the case with achievements in science and technology, which may show that India
is at least catching up with developed countries. Perhaps patriotic fervour and
understandable excitement lay behind some of the opinions such as that Saras
represented a milestone in aviation or that it had launched India into the
forefront of the worlds aviation industry. Sadly, neither is true. Saras is
indeed a considerable step forward in Indian aeronautics but, given the rather
long history of the Indian aviation industry, longer than in most developing
countries, and the huge investments made in it in terms of infrastructure and
human resources, a more objective look at Saras would reveal it to be no giant
leap.
DESIGN
CONCEPT
Saras
has been conceived as a multi-role small aircraft which can operate as a
passenger carrier, executive craft, air ambulance or air rescue craft or for
coast guard and other similar roles, with capacity to operate from semi-prepared
airfields including in hot and high-altitude conditions which call for greater
power and operational flexibility.
In
its primary role as a commuter or air-taxi craft, considered best suited for
short hops in regional sectors or in hub-and-spoke operations i.e., connecting
smaller airports to major ones, Saras is designed to seat 14 passengers,
expandable to 18. Its executive version with longer range will have 9 deluxe
seats and a combi or combination version will have 7 economy class seats
with space for mail and light packages. Saras is expected to have a maximum
range of 1942 km or 6 hours endurance, a maximum cruising speed of 550 km per
hour at 6000 meters (20,000 feet) altitude, with a maximum take-off weight of
6100 kg, fuel load of 1326 kg and a payload or load-carrying capacity
(passengers, cargo or equipment or fittings) of 1232 kg.
Saras
is driven by two time-tested Pratt & Whitney PT-6A-66 turbo-prop-engines
(made by the Canadian subsidiary of the US aero-engine giant), or turbine-based
engines which drive propellers. In Saras, the engines are mounted facing
backwards in a push configuration at the rear of the fuselage (rather
than, as is more usual, being mounted on the wings). This rather distinctive
configuration, far less common in propeller-driven aircraft than in jets, has
several advantages, chiefly substantial reduction in noise within the cabin and
smoother airflow across the wings uninterrupted by engines and mountings. The
aircraft has a pressurized roomy cabin and is fitted with the latest
instrumentation and avionics as is common in contemporary small commuter and
regional aircraft which seek to provide increasingly demanding paying passengers
with near-jet flying conditions.
Saras
has been designed by the National Aerospace Laboratory (NAL) in Bangalore, a
constituent laboratory of the CSIR, an interesting aspect in itself in the
context of Indian aviation. NAL has no great experience or background in
aircraft design and even less so in manufacture, but it has over the years
acquired considerable specialised expertise in some areas of aeronautical
research such as aerodynamics, structure, composite materials, wind tunnel and
other research and testing using sophisticated facilities and heavy-duty
computing ability with Indias first parallel computer Flosolver. This
experience and capability, together with strategic partnerships with agencies
such as the Hindustan Aeronautic Limited (HAL), the backbone of Indian aircraft
manufacturing and design-development overwhelmingly in military applications,
and the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), itself a consortium of
several research entities and which spearheaded the development of the Light
Combat Aircraft, all in Banglore, gave NAL the confidence to position itself in
the 90s to play a major role in catalysing a vibrant civilian aviation
industry in India.
A
series of market studies in the late 80s, two conducted by NAL itself and two
others commissioned by it, brought out the need and market potential for a
fourth level airline in India which would operate in a feeder role
connecting small airfields in far flung, remote or otherwise low-density
locations to regional hubs or airports in larger towns or cities. The world
over, it is in such sectors that small or commuter aircraft with 10-25
passenger capacity operate whereas third level carriers connecting
regional hubs with metros or national hubs operate with regional aircraft
typically with 40-70 passengers capacity. In India, aircraft in fourth
level roles would require to be rugged, with relatively short take-off and
landing lengths and capability to perform well under diverse climatic and
altitude conditions, so as to operate from small, semi-prepared airfields in
different parts of the country. Such capability would also enable such aircraft
to perform secondary roles such as air rescue, air ambulance, coast guard,
reconnaissance etc.
These
studies, with considerable mutual consistency, had indicated a market potential
for around 200-250 such aircraft in India itself over the next 20 years. Besides
this, the studies showed good potential for such an aircraft in different
markets worldwide where it could be positioned appropriately to suit prevalent
conditions and passenger profiles, for example in Africa, especially in the
tourist and safari circuits in rugged terrain with short runways, in the
Asia-Pacific and Middle-East regions as a commuter or tourist aircraft with
performance and comforts comparable to small jet aircraft, and as a low-cost
aircraft to replace the ageing An-2 in the former Soviet Union. The export
potential of the Saras is expected to be enhanced by its cost advantages
projected to be about 30 per cent lower than comparable aircraft available in
the international market.
This
somewhat rosy picture, however, is in need of a reality check.
REALITY
CHECK
Let
us first look at the aircraft design and development programme. The NAL had
begun conceptualising a programme to develop a small commuter type aircraft in
1991. But the Rs 139 crore project was beset by several hurdles, chiefly the
difficulty faced by NAL to mobilise the funds required and later, after approval
by the Cabinet in the late 90s and release of funds, the denial of critical
components under US sanctions imposed in the wake of the Pokhran nuclear weapons
tests blasts in 1998. Whereas detailed design exercises of various aircraft
surfaces had commenced at NAL in 1996, the Project as a whole was seriously
revived in 2001 with a cost escalation of 20 per cent, with funds coming from
the CSIR itself, the Technology Development Board (set up by the Ministry of
Science & Technology as a venture fund to promote productionisation of
innovative technologies, Saras being the first governmental project to be funded
by the TDB) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. NALs private-sector partner
Banglore-based Taneja Aerospace contributes to the project in terms of
manufacturing important sub-assemblies.
Saras
is touted as a great achievement of indigenous science and technology. Nobody
seriously expects this to mean an isolated endeavour or one not involving at
least some borrowing of technologies from elsewhere and innovative reverse
engineering to absorb new technologies into the indigenous infrastructure and
capability. Yet there has been extreme shyness in acknowledging that Saras
originated from a collaborative venture with the Russian (formerly Soviet)
Myasischev Design Bureau based heavily on one of the latters highly similar
aircraft codenamed Duo which was first displayed in the MAKS-2001 Moscow
air show. Myasischev being one of the smaller Russian aviation companies, all of
whom are struggling to keep their head above water in the changed environment in
which the Russian aircraft industry now finds itself, had been looking for
strategic investors in the 90s and a collaboration with NAL was agreed upon.
Current developments seem to suggest that Myasischev has completely sold its
duo technology to NAL.
Apart
from the somewhat clever masking of this collaborative contribution by the
Myassischev Bureau, a more serious problem has arisen with the final design and
fabrication of the prototypes, the first of which flew last week. The prototype
weighed 5118 kg which is disturbingly high, close to 25 per cent higher than the
design empty weight of 4125 kg. On being questioned about this overweight,
NALs project director said it was a minor problem which would be
corrected in due course of development. Fact of the matter is that a 25 per cent
weight penalty is huge and reducing it will take considerable work including
some re-designing, especially since the prototype carried only 4 seats and few
of the fittings and attachments which the flight model will carry. The weight
penalty is likely to seriously compromise the range and fuel-carrying capacity,
the fuel economy, the 3 year schedule to obtain flight certification, and will
almost certainly have a negative impact on project costs and hence on the
ultimate price of the aircraft, all adversely affecting the project viability.
NALs
projected cost differential between Saras and comparable aircraft available
internationally, which could have at least to some extent offset the above
likely cost escalation, also do not bear close scrutiny. While NAL has claimed
that Saras would cost anywhere around a third less than comparable
aircraft, several experts have estimated the cost gap to be less than 15 per
cent, considering the extent of foreign sourced components including the engine,
and especially taking into account the possible poor economies of scale even
with the projected demand of around 250 aircraft in 20 years.
The
market, both globally and domestically, have changed significantly since the NAL
studies carried out in the early 80s. The NAL Director informed the press
soon after Saras maiden flight that Saras has a market potential of about
100-150 in the domestic civilian and cargo domains, and that too predicated
on the projected 30 per cent price differential, a substantial downward revision
from the 200-250 projected as the basis for launching the project. In the
domestic sector this possibly shrinking market is also evidenced by the
induction of 30-45 seater aircraft by feeder airlines and budget carriers in
India which leaves a much smaller niche for a 14-seater commuter aircraft like
the Saras except in a few regional locations. There is also considerable
competition from smaller aircraft in the commuter and even in the executive
segment such as the widely sold and famous planes from Beechcraft, Piper and
Citation, which are nowadays also available on lease on quite favourable terms.
After
the maiden test flight, the Indian Air Force promised an initial order of six
Saras aircraft. Some other public sector carriers may follow suit later. But
such purchases, perhaps even on cost-plus basis as in the past, may not suffice
to keep the Saras programme buoyant.
FAMILIAR
PROBLEM
The
problem confronting NAL today is one familiar to observers of the Indian scene
and the past performance of major players such as HAL. Faulty planning, time and
cost overruns, lack of foresight and, to cap it, an absence of a professional
work culture allowing for thoroughgoing review, criticism and a self-correction
mechanism. In the Saras case, these latter flaws were pointed out by a very
senior and now retired doyen of Indian aviation in a letter to a leading
national daily stating that the problems of overweight and other design and
fabrication problems were brought to the attention of senior NAL and CSIR
officials but to no avail. These systemic problems have held Indian aviation
back whereas those of some other developing countries have galloped ahead.
A
good example is the Brazilian aircraft company Embraer which is now a
world-class global manufacturer of regional aircraft with 40-100 seat capacity.
It is worth briefly recalling the Embraer story as, by comparison, it brings out
the weaknesses in the Indian system.
Embraer
was set up in 1969 by the then military government in Brazil in the state sector
and then privatised in 1994, whereas HAL in India which functions under the
Department of Defence Production but started up in the private sector during
World War II. Embraer early on identified a potential gap in the market for
medium-capacity regional aircraft and based on considerable design-development
work beforehand, started marketing 37-50 seater aircraft in the mid-90s which
were virtually an overnight success. Embraer faced stiff competition from the
American manufacturer Fairchild and the Canadian Bombardier and had also to
contend with a World Trade Organisation ruling forcing the Brazilian government
to scale back subsidies. Overcoming these odds, since 1996 Embraer has sold over
700 regional jets with capacity ranging from 35 to 90 to airlines around the
world including in the US, Europe and Asia, and some Indian carriers are also
currently in negotiations with the Brazilian manufacturer. Last year, it earned
USD135 million on sales of USD 2.1 billion and expects sales to reach USD 3.3
billion in 2004.
Now
Embraer is trying to break into a new market, for jet aircraft seating 70-100.
According to the US Transportation Department, 61 per cent of all flights in the
US take off with roughly that number of passengers. The new Embraer aircraft are
designed to fit into a niche where larger planes of capacity greater than 100
made by Boeing and Airbus usually operate but uneconomically, using the same
avionics, controls flight deck and engineering as larger planes, passenger
headcounts in that range. Thus the Embraer, 170/190 series of commercial jets is
designed to fill a gap between regional planes, which usually seat up to 70
people, and large commercial jets but with all the comforts of the latter. As a
result of these development, Embraer is considered one of the hottest
manufacturers in the aviation industry today.
It
is indeed ironic that Russian manufacturer Ilyushin, maker of many famous large
civilian and military transport aircraft including several in service in India,
had proposed a collaboration agreement with HAL in the early 90s to make
aircraft in just this market segment. The project was sought to be pushed during
several high-profile visits by Russian government leaders to India. Even MoUs
were signed but the project never even reached the drawing board stage. Today,
the market for regional aircraft is nearing saturation with each of the 3 big
players including Embraer having roughly 30 per cent market share. The Russians
are still trying with different potential partners including China, but the task
is proving increasingly difficult with over USD 30 billions worth orders having
been placed for this class of aircraft.
Another
bus missed by the Indian aviation industry. And Saras may prove to be a bus with
few passengers left to carry.
